The newest statistics from the Paris Chambre de Notaires are hot off the press from the end of August 2019: "Sustained activity and prices a little quieter..." Let's see what that means...
Real estate activity remained extremely strong this summer. In line with previous months, sales volumes continued to grow with 55,780 resale homes sold in the Ile-de-France from June to August 2019, up 12 percent compared to the same period in 2018. The increase reached 32 percent (more than 13,500 additional dwellings) compared to the average of the last 10 years. The month of July 2019 was particularly dynamic.
The good performance of the activity is widespread across all geographic areas of Greater Paris. The sales surge is a little stronger for apartments (+14 percent when comparing June to August 2019 to the same period in 2018) than for houses (+10 percent). The Grande Couronne apartment market, which offers still-priced products with abundant supply, has once again performed very well. Sales of apartments in the Grande Couronne have increased by 23 percent in one year.
For the following months, business prospects are still very good, with motivated buyers and interest rates that are still exceptionally attractive. The first results of the notaries of Greater Paris bodes well for September, with sales increases that would continue at an equivalent pace.
In Ile-de-France, in one year, from August 2018 to August 2019, the price of resale housing rose by another 3.8 percent. The annual rise in prices remains higher for apartments (+4.4 percent) than for houses (+2.3 percent).
Prices continue to rise in Paris at a rate fortunately a little less sustained than initially expected. The cap of €10,000 per square meter mark was reached in September 2019 (instead of August which had been anticipated). According to prices from the pre-sale contracts of the notaries of Greater Paris, the price per square meter is expected to be around €10,200 in December 2019 in the capital. Taking into account past increases, price growth would then be 6.8 percent over the year 2019. In Ile-de-France, the price of apartments should increase by 5.8 percent in one year, with an increase of 5.7 percent in Petite Couronne and 2.7 percent in Grande Couronne.
For houses, a fall in prices is expected in the coming months. This movement is very usual and related to this time of the year. After the price rush in the summer, when households are hastening to make their move to move before the start of the school year in September, price pressures are slowing down. In the suburbs, the price of resale houses is expected to fall by 2.3 percent in three months. In one year, on the other hand, house prices would hardly change.
The statistics are calculated on sales observed over three months (August corresponds to the period from June to August).
SIZE AND AGE COUNTS
In 2018, 30 to 39 year-olds (36 percent of purchasers France) remain the most present buyers (from 33 percent in Paris to 39 percent in Seine-Saint-Denis). The under-30s share was 17 percent in 2018 in the region, a level equivalent to 1998. In the same way, the share of seniors is less changed: 10 percent of buyers are 60 years of age and older in Ile-de-France, the same proportion as in 1998. Despite price changes, the median age of the purchaser and the median area acquired have changed little in 20 years.
In 1998, 65 square meters was bought by 39 year-olds and, in 2018, 67 square meters by 38 year-olds in Ile-de-France. This stability is also observed at a finer level. They also buy very small surfaces: 44 square meters in Paris, about 60 square meters in the Petite Couronne and 80 square meters in the Grande Couronne, where the share of houses has fallen from 61 percent to 54 percent in 20 years in total sales.
The median age of acquisition has hardly changed, except in Paris, where it was advanced from 43 years in 1998 to 40 years in 2018. On the other hand, the median acquisition budget rose sharply. In 1998, a Frenchman spent about 100,000 euros to become a homeowner in the Ile-de-France, whether in Paris, the Petite or the Grande Couronne. This amount has increased 2.7 times in 20 years in the region, by about four in Paris, three in the Petite Couronne and two in the Grande Couronne. Parisians become an owner essentially between the ages of 30 and 50.
Apartment or house, the choice remains very different according to age. Younger people much more frequently buy an apartment (80 percent of the acquisitions of the under 30s) as well as the older buyers (79 percent of the acquisitions over 60 years). In between, the share of houses increases to 42 percent of acquisitions of 40-49 year-olds and even 65 percent of these in the Grande Couronne. This is an important trend, already visible in 1998, which probably corresponds to lifestyles (presence of children) which has probably been strengthened by economic constraints (increased house prices). Larger homes are purchased 2018 by 40-49 year-olds (while in 1998 these were 30-39 year-olds). This is true in general for all sectors of the region and again more in the Grande Couronne (91 square meters median size), particularly in Seine-et-Marne (95 square meters). At the other end of the scale, the less than 30-year-olds buy just 35 square meters in Paris.
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