Paris Property Market is Still Amazing While Fewer Have Homes!

 

Part I: Paris Property Price Report

Paris is amazing. Regardless of what seems to happen on the political or economic scene, the price of property in the capital holds.

According to the latest figures published by the Chambre de Notaires (June 27th), prices have stabilized at 8,280€ average per square meter at the end of April (-0.2% over three months and 1.4% over one year). Sixty-three hundred existing homes/apartments were sold in Paris between February and April 2013 and prices have held steady overall on the average.

The real differences can be seen among the districts where some are fairing better than others. At the end of March 2013, according to data from the notaries, the most expensive districts are (still) the 6th (€12,250/m2), 1st (€12,190/m2), 7th (€12,160/m2), 3rd (10,500€/m²) and the 4th and 5th (both €10,320/m²).

The most affordable are the 19th (€6,720/m2), 20th (€7,210/m²) and 12th arrondissement (€7,850/m²).

When taking a closer look at each of the neighborhoods, the most expensive districts in Paris are Saint-Germain-des-Prés (€14,650/m2), Monnaie (€14,290/m2),other parts of the 6th arrondissement, and Gros Caillou in the 7th (€ 12,560/m2).

The least expensive neighborhoods are Pont de Flandres (€6,180/m2) in the 19th arrondissement, and La Chapelle (€6,230/m2) and La Goutte d’Or (6,250 €/m²), both located in the 18th district.

According to the leading indicators of by the Notaries de Paris, based on the prices from the pre-sale agreements, prices will remain stable this summer at around €8,250 per square meter, confirming the stabilization Parisian prices observed since the fourth quarter of 2012.

Sales have increased, in spite of past predictions which indicated a decline. Twenty-nine thousand, four hundred existing homes were sold from February to April 2013 in the Ile-de-France, an increase of 13% in relation to February to April 2012. Sales volumes increased by 14% for old apartments and 11% for houses. During the period, all departments show an increase in sales, except for one — the Val-d’Oise and only for resale apartments.

The improvement in sales compared to last year owes much to the comparison period itself. From February to April 2012, the activity was significantly reduced after peak sales in January 2012 due to the changes in the capital gains tax laws which went into effect February 1, 2012. For the first four months of the year, activity in 2013 is 11% below that of 2012, as a result. And the number of sales of existing homes are still low — between 10 and 20% below the average level of transactions recorded in 15 years.

This situation is unlikely to change in the coming months. An an
nouncement of a temporary reform of the of capital gains taxes by President Hollande may also feed into the decline pending clarification as sellers wait for the implementation of the reforms.

Prices are not affected by the drops in sales volumes. In fact, as properties are held from the market because of the eventual tax reforms, prices are holding. When comparing April 2013 to January 2013, there is a very slight decline of 0.2% of all units, of 0.3% for resale apartments and a stable unit price 301,600€ for resale houses. Taking into account seasonal changes, some prices have slightly increased (0.3% for houses and 0.1% for all units).

This is why the downward trend from one year to the other is very minimal. It affects all departments, and the apartment market as well as for houses. The price of Paris housing fell by 1.6% in one year, with a decrease somewhat larger for houses (-1.9%), particularly those located in the outer suburbs (-2.4%).

For the complete report, download the pdf (in French).

Note: the figures published by the Chambre de Notaries de Paris and Ile-de-France are calculations of the evolution of sales volume and price indexes following tables made from the transactions signed by notaries. They relate to existing homes sold in Ile-de-France over the last three months available. These results, published less than two months after the end of the reporting period, are provisional and are recalculated for each statement. The number of sales does not indicate the number of transactions in the database, but an estimate of the actual number of recorded sales. Price indexes are calculated using the methodology of calculation of Notaires – INSEE. They are not seasonally adjusted. This methodology was changed to coincide with the publication of Notaires – INSEE, September 2011.

Part II: The Changing Face of Homelessness in Paris and France

In a recent article in Le Monde, over the last ten years, “the face of homelessness has changed.”

Shockingly, the number of homeless has increased by 50% between 2001 and 2012. In real numbers, the INSEE counted a total of 141,500 people (81,000 adults and 30,000 children) who have used emergency shelters or distribution of meals, plus

8,000 homeless in rural communities and small towns and 22,500 people in reception centers for asylum seekers. This is likely not all of the French homeless, but it indicates the sheer magnitude of the problem.

More than a third (38.6%) of the homeless are foreigners (25.4% are francophone and 13.2% are non-francophone), but both French and foreign homeless have increased sharply. They do not all sleep in the street — 78% use shelters, but 12% of those have some other interim solutions.

The homeless population is divided between different types of accommodations: one-third are in precarious housing, another third in hosting services, the rest use emergency centers or are actually homeless and sleeping on the streets. There are fewer women, more foreigners, fewer couples and fewer people with children, but of course, most have no family at all. One thing striking is that they are getting younger — 19% of the homeless are under 29 years of age. One-quarter have some sort of job, but most are unemployed, lower than it was ten years ago.

Minister of Housing, Cécile DuflotOn the average, the homeless have been in the situation for 8.5 months, but a large portion have never had a home of their own. And this is what the government will be setting out to do — the Ministry of Housing, led by Cécile Duflot, has proposed a plan to re-establish 100,000 vacant homes to house the homeless.

How will this affect property prices? Stay tuned to find out!

A bientôt and Happy Independence Day!

 

 

Adrian Leeds

Editor, French Property Insider & Director of The Adrian Leeds Group, LLC

Email:  [email protected]

 

 

 

 

 

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