Follow the Tracks and the Trends

FRENCH PROPERTY BA>ROMETER

Earlier this month, MeilleurAgents.com published the 105th edition of their monthly barometer –– an analysis of the residential real estate market in Paris, in the Île-de-France and in the ten largest cities of France.

The key points of the barometer take a close examination of the residential market and evaluates the evolution in both the short and medium terms.

The first eight months of 2018 at the national level are in continuity with 2016 and 2017 –– a steady and measured increase in prices, stable and high sales volumes in a fluid market.First-time buyers still account for an average of one-third of buyers, with a slight fall in the share of second-time buyers.

The Meilleur Agents statistics team revealed a new key indicator to better understand the market situation: the Délai de Vente Médian (DVM) (Median Sale Delay) –– the value of which continues to fall in major cities in France.

The analysis of all of these factors (trends in unemployment, median sales time, real estate stress indicator, real estate purchasing power, interest rate changes, borrowing times, real estate agents’ perception, regulatory changes…) leads to the provision that the residential real estate market will retain its current momentum until the summer of 2019.

Meilleur Agents forecasts a price increase of +1.5% in France by next summer and reveals the outlook for the market in Paris and the 10 largest cities in France.

Several indicators nevertheless show that the cycle change is near and should occur in less than a year, probably as a result of a rate hike decided by the Banque Centrale Européenne (BCE).

Prices increased on average steadily since 2016: +0.8% in 2016, +1.7% in 2017, +1.1% since 1 January 2018. Sales volumes remain stable at its highest level: 960,000 transactions in 2017, 948,000 over 12 months up to May 2018 (-1.25%). With more than three sales per year per 100 households, the market remains very fluid.In Paris, the price increase is significantly higher than at the national level: +5.3% in 2016, +6.7% in 2017 and +4.6% in the first eight months of 2018, i.e. +17.5% since 2016 and +41.5% over 10 years.

It should be noted, however, that over the first eight months of the year 2018, 35% of the 50 largest cities in France saw their average prices decrease.

According to the real estate agents, in July 2018, like a year earlier, the first-time buyers accounted for 32% of the purchasers at the national level. Over the same period, the second-time buyers rose from 40% to 42% while the share of investors (for rental revenue purposes) decreased: 16% in July 2017 and 14% in July 2018. The purchasers of secondary residences remained stable with 12%.

For more detailed and complete information, visit the Meilleurs Agents site (in French).

FIVE NEW HIGH-SPEED TRAINS

Follow the train tracks to a successful property purchase. Where the trains go, so do the tourists and the residents. Earlier this year, France committed to making a huge investment in its infrastructure, including five new high-speed trains, designed to connect old points across the country more efficiently and faster by the year 2023. Rail lines will be upgraded to accommodate the TGV and new cars will be added.

My favorite of all is the new Marseille to Nice linking the Old Port in Marseille with Nice. Those wishing to visit the Normandy beaches will be able to go from Gare St. Lazare in Paris to Le Havre with a stop at the WWII memorials much faster than the current 2.5-hour trip. Along the western Mediterranean coast, a new line will run from Montpellier to Perpignan along the water, a trip that now takes 1.5 hours will be shaved considerably. Bordeaux to Toulouse will speed up the now four hours to three hours and the stations in both cities will get a face lift. And for those flying in our out of Charles-de-Gaulle Airport, train lines will be able to take you directly to or from Chantilly, Creil, Pont-Sainte-Maxence, Clermont, Compiègne, and Amiens.

Unfortunately, you can’t book your tickets until within 90 days of your trip…so I suppose we just have to wait till these lines are up and running!For more information, visit sncf.com/sncv1/.

A bientôt,

Adrian Leeds
Adrian Leeds Group

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P.S. “Paris By the Books,” our newest episode on House Hunters International is set to air October 4th! “Cristina is leaving Boston to complete her degree in international law, and her mom is tagging along to help her find a place and settle into a new life in Paris…” Details on our own HHI page. Set your DVRs now!