Paris Property Update: Stability, Uncertainty, and the Opportunities Hiding in Plain Sight

By Jay Corless, edited by Adrian Leeds

Every quarter, the Notaires du Grand Paris publish their closely watched statistics on the resale property market across Île-de-France. Their September 2025 report, covering the second quarter of the year, provides a sobering yet fascinating snapshot of where we stand today.

After a brief revival in early 2025, the Paris property market is once again showing signs of fatigue. Sales volumes are weak, prices are stable, and the outlook is cautious. For sellers, this may feel frustrating; for buyers, however, it might just be the breathing space you’ve been waiting for.

TRANSACTION VOLUMES: A MARKET THAT WON’T LIFT OFF

Across the Paris region, 28,740 homes changed hands in the second quarter of 2025—a three percent increase compared to the same period in 2024. At first glance, that looks encouraging. But dig a little deeper, and the story changes.

Annualized activity remains stuck below 120,000 sales—a threshold we haven’t surpassed for six consecutive quarters. That’s the same low level reached during the depths of the 2009 financial crisis. This is not the sign of a buoyant market; it continues to limp along.

Paris is mainly responsible for dragging the regional figures down. Sales volumes in the capital fell by 12 percent compared to last year, leaving Parisian notaries with far less activity this spring. The near suburbs, known as the Petite Couronne, fared better with a five percent rise. In contrast, the outer suburbs, or Grande Couronne, carried much of the weight with a 10 percent increase in transactions. In Seine-et-Marne alone, apartment sales increased by 12 percent, underscoring the varied dynamics across the region.

PRICES: FLAT BUT POISED TO RISE

If volumes are lackluster, prices are surprisingly steady. Apartments across Île-de-France inched up by a mere 0.1 percent year-on-year, while houses slipped by just 0.8 percent. The trend of falling prices that began in late 2022 appears to have run its course.

In Paris, the average price per square meter is 9,490€—exactly where it has hovered for the past 18 months. The capital’s market has been in what feels like suspended animation, with little sign of a downward slide but also no upward momentum.

But this might be about to change. The Notaires’ forward indicators, based on preliminary contracts, suggest prices will begin to rise modestly in the coming months. By October, apartment prices across the region are projected to grow by just over half a percent, while house prices could rise by as much as three and a half percent. In Paris, the average cost per square meter is expected to reach 9,650€ this autumn, an annual increase of 1.8 percent.

This would mark the first broadly positive movement in nearly two years.

PARIS: A CITY OF CONTRASTS

While the citywide averages make headlines, the arrondissement-level data tells a far more nuanced story. Paris is never one market, but many.

The Left Bank, particularly the luxury 7th arrondissement, has softened. In Saint-Thomas-d’Aquin, one of its most exclusive quarters, prices have fallen sharply—by 7.4 percent over the past year—to an average of 15,090€ per square meter. At the same time, some central districts are defying the slowdown. In the 3rd arrondissement’s Sainte-Avoye, prices actually rose by a staggering 19.3 percent year-on-year, now reaching 13,610€ per square meter. At the other end of the spectrum, working-class neighborhoods remain the most affordable. In Pont de Flandre, prices dropped nearly 15 percent over the past year to just 6,510€ per square meter, making it the least expensive quarter in Paris.

Such disparities highlight the importance of looking beyond the headlines. Even in a market described as stagnant, there are opportunities for savvy buyers willing to explore districts that are cooling after years of excess, or those that are beginning to gain ground thanks to their relative affordability and lifestyle appeal.

FINANCING: THE SILENT CONSTRAINT

One of the most significant pressures on the market is not prices themselves, but financing. Mortgage rates dipped slightly earlier this year, bringing some relief. Still, they remain above 3 percent and could rise again in the current climate of political uncertainty.

The Notaires quantify what this means for buyers’ wallets. In January 2022, a typical household could finance the purchase of a 65-square-meter apartment. By October 2025, that same budget will buy just 58.5 square meters. For houses, the drop in purchasing power is even starker: from 100 square meters in 2022 down to 87.6 square meters in 2025. Monthly mortgage payments are expected to be up by more than 11 percent for apartments and 14 percent for houses over the same period.

WHAT IT MEANS FOR NORTH AMERICAN BUYERS

For many of our readers—North Americans dreaming of a Paris pied-à-terre or considering a longer-term move—the big question is whether to buy now or wait. In our view, the answer is becoming clearer. Prices have bottomed out. The sharp declines of 2022 and 2023 are behind us, and the data now points to modest increases ahead. Competition in the marketplace is also softer than in years past, with transaction volumes at historic lows. Buyers are facing less pressure and can afford to be more selective.

Financing is, of course, a challenge for French households. Still, many of our clients buy without mortgages or with smaller financing needs. That makes this market particularly advantageous for international buyers who are not as dependent on French lending conditions. For them, the combination of stable prices, softer competition, and a likely return to rising values presents a rare opportunity.

DON’T MISTAKE STILLNESS FOR WEAKNESS

The current market may feel slow, even sleepy. But Paris real estate rarely stays quiet for long. The city’s fundamental appeal is simply too strong, its housing supply too limited, and its lifestyle too seductive. When Paris property holds its value through political instability, rising interest rates, and global uncertainty, it speaks volumes about its resilience.

If you have been waiting for the “perfect moment” to enter the Paris market, don’t expect it to be announced with fireworks. More often than not, it arrives quietly, disguised as stillness—just like now.

Read the entire PDF report (in French).

Note that Paris Centre, districts 1 through 4, recently restricted to traffic, is showing the greatest increases, something I’ve been predicting for years!

A bientôt,