Paris: Sales Up, Prices Down

Good Level of Activity and Price Increases Concentrated in the Greater Paris Area and in the Home Market

Paris real estate volumes and prices at the end of February 2022:

Published on April 27, 2022 by the Chambre de Notaires de Paris

Recorded in the Paris Region from December 2021 to February 2022 were 40,210 sales of existing homes. As has been the case for several months, activity remains down, with a slight decline of 6 percent compared to the same period a year earlier.

However, beyond a necessarily disappointing comparison with the historical records of activity that we have recently experienced, and in a broader historical perspective, activity still remains well oriented. Indeed, sales volumes are 7 percent above the 37,510 sales recorded on average over the last 10 years, confirming a form of normalization of the market, after an exceptional period.

This seems to be all the more true given that we are also seeing more resilient activity in February 2022 and that the leading indicators are rather resilient and bode well for the coming months.

After enjoying strong momentum, the house market is falling slightly more sharply than the apartment market (-13 percent and -3 percent respectively in one year). In addition, the market in the Grande Couronne area has held up better than that in the Petite Couronne area.

Finally, for several months, sales volumes have been dynamic in the Capital.

This trend continued from December 2021 to February 2022, with a 4 percent increase in sales volumes compared to December 2020 – February 2021. The erosion of Parisian prices may be leaving new opportunities for buyers, bringing new fluidity to the market.

Prices continue to fall in the heart of the city, while increases remain strong in the outer suburbs

In Ile-de-France and in one year, from February 2021 to February 2022, the prices of resale homes increased by 2.4 percent.

Developments remain highly contrasted between the different markets and geographic sectors. The market for apartments in the Paris region has seen its prices stabilize in one year (+0.5 percent), pulled down by the decline in values in the Capital. Conversely, price increases are continuing at a steady pace (+6.3 percent in one year) for houses in the Paris region.

In Paris, the price per square meter of resale apartments fell to €10,550 per square meter in February 2022, down 1.2 percent in one year. According to prices from preliminary contracts, the downward trend will continue in the following months. We forecast a price per square meter of €10,410 in June 2022 in the Capital, an annual decrease of 2.4 percent and a return to the price observed in March 2020.

In the extension, and as a result of diffusion, the increase in apartment prices would be reduced to 1 percent in one year in the Petite Couronne. Conversely, it would accelerate in the Grande Couronne (+4.5 percent in one year) for apartments.

In line with what is currently observed, prices would continue to rise significantly faster for houses, with an expected annual increase of 6.7 percent in Ile-de-France in June, 5 percent in the Petite Couronne and 7.5 percent in the Grande Couronne. These trends can be explained by the fact that prices for houses have remained historically more moderate over the past 25 years (see our focus) and by the renewed attractiveness of this type of property.

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A bientôt,