The Notaire’s Report for 2022: Sales Down, Prices Up and More Foreigners Buying than Ever Before

How did real estate in France fair for 2022? Here’s the Notaire’s annual report just published this past week with a headline that read:

“A year marked by a drop in sales volumes…and prices that continue to rise!”

What happened in 2022? Here’s what they are reporting:

• 1,133,000 transactions were carried out over the past 12 months in France at the end of September;
• + 4.0% is the year-over-year change in the price index for resale apartments in metropolitan France;
• + 8.2% is the year-over-year increase in the price index for resale homes in metropolitan France;
• there are 43 square meters of the financeable surface area of a resale apartment in France as a whole (monthly payment of 800€/month for 20 years and without a deposit), -1 square meter over one year;
• 113 square meters is the financeable surface of a resale house in all of France (monthly payment of 1300€/month for 20 years and without contribution);
• -10 square meters over one year.

Maître Edouard Grimond, spokesman for the CSN Board, in charge of real estate and housing, stated: “After an atypical year in 2021, the year 2022 is characterized on the one hand by a drop in volumes of around – 5.4% over twelve months at the end of September and on the other hand by prices still trending upwards, more strongly for houses than for apartments. For the weeks to come, we expect volumes to decline slowly, while the mechanics of the usury rate may lead to the postponement of a sale or even compromise it. Moreover, the slowdown in price increases has begun, even though the decline is not imminent. In the average term, however, we remain cautious in our forecasts, as the macroeconomic situation and the geopolitical context remain uncertain. In the context of energy sobriety, the quality of the properties sold could have a growing impact on prices.

At the end of September 2022, the number of transactions carried out over the past twelve months in France (including the overseas departments excluding Mayotte) is estimated at 1,133,000, compared with 1,206,000 at the end of September 2021. The annual volume of transactions has been declining since the fourth quarter of 2021, following the increase between the end of 2020 and the third quarter of 2021.

In the third quarter of 2022, prices of resale apartments in metropolitan France rose slightly by 0.9% compared to the second quarter of 2022 (in provisional seasonally adjusted data). The changes recorded in previous quarters are positive and in similar proportions (+1.2% in the second quarter of 2022, +1.2% in the first quarter of 2022, +0.7% in the fourth quarter of 2021, and +1.4% in the third quarter of 2021).

Over the course of a year, prices for resale apartments increased by 4.0%.

The annual change is slightly lower than those seen over the past two years (+5.3% in the third quarter of 2021 and +6.6% in the third quarter of 2020) and is in line with that seen in 2019. Two years ago, annual price changes between Ile-de-France and the rest of metropolitan France were comparable (+6.7% and +6.5% respectively). But while the increase has moderated Ile-de-France (+2.6% last year and +0.2% this year), it has been maintained in the rest of France (+7.7% in 2021 and +7.1% in 2022).

As a reminder, the leading indicators based on pre-sale contracts are calculated using the same method as the Notaires-Insee indexes and allow us to project price indexes for three months. This allows us today to present the trend until January 2023:

– Projections for the fourth quarter of 2022 suggest a continuation of the annual price increase in the provinces (+6.9%) and a more measured increase for the Ile-de-France (+1.5%) ;

– At the end of January 2023, projections indicate annual changes of around +1% for Ile-de-France, +6% for the Province, and +4% for metropolitan France.

Across metropolitan France, prices of older homes in the third quarter of 2022 increased by 1.9% compared to the second quarter. The observation is similar for the provinces (+1.9%) and Ile-de-France (+1.5%). As for older apartments, the quarterly rate of increase in the indices for metropolitan France is comparable to that of previous quarters (+1.5% in the second quarter of 2022, +2.1% in the first quarter of 2022, +2.4% in the fourth quarter of 2021 and +2.2% in third quarter 2021).

Over one year, price increases reached +8.2% in the third quarter of 2022 (+5.7% in Ile-de-France and +8.6% for the rest of France) and followed the strong +9.1% increase recorded a year ago. This represents an increase of 18% in the space of two years (+23% in three years).

Projections for the fourth quarter of 2022 point to a price increase over one year that is slightly below the trends observed in the third quarter: +7.3% for the provinces and +3.1% for the Paris region.

At the end of January 2022, projections indicate one-year price increases of around +3% for the Paris region and around +7% for metropolitan France and the provinces.

The median price per square meter and change over one year for old apartments in the first nine months of the year in the principal municipalities of France.

Median prices per square meter range from €1,170 in Saint-Étienne to €10,590 in Paris:

– Only one city with a price per square meter below €2,000: Saint-Étienne;

– five cities with a price per square meter around €2,500: Toulon, Reims, Grenoble, Orleans, and Dijon; a year ago, prices in these same cities were between €2,300 and €2,400;

– four cities where the price per square meter reaches 4,000 or more: Nice, Bordeaux, Lyon, and Paris (as of 2021, the order remains unchanged).

Despite annual increases, prices in Saint-Étienne remain below those recorded before the 2007-2008 crisis. In Toulon and Grenoble, they have almost returned to their 2007-2008 record price levels.

In the other provincial towns, prices per square meter observed in 2022 are new records.

Of the 18 cities surveyed, only Paris recorded a very slight decline in its median price per square meter (-1%). Annual price changes do not exceed 1% in the expensive cities of Lyon and Bordeaux. In the rest of the municipalities, annual price changes range from +1% in Toulouse to +8% in Le Havre. The overall trend is therefore upward, but more measured and homogeneous than a year ago. Last year, only three municipalities showed annual price increases of less than 5% (Paris, Bordeaux, and Nice). Conversely, in the municipalities of Saint-Étienne, Reims, Orléans, Strasbourg, and Rennes, annual price changes were above 10%.

Five-year trend: comparison of prices between 2017 and 2022

– No decrease in prices over five years has been observed among the main provincial cities;

– four cities have a price increase of between +10% and +25%: Grenoble (+15%), Toulon (+18%), Nice (+21%), and Reims (+23%);

– nine cities with price increases between +25% and +35%: Toulouse (+25%), Lille (+26%), Montpellier (+27%), Bordeaux (+29%), Marseille (+30%), Orleans (+32%), Le Havre (+32%), Saint-Étienne (+32%) and Dijon (+34%);

– four cities with a price change over five years greater than 35%: Strasbourg (+37%), Lyon (+43%), Nantes (+46%), and Rennes (+59%).

10-year trend: comparison of prices between 2012 and 2022

– one city down: Saint-Étienne (-3%);

– three cities experienced increases of less than 10%: Toulon (+2%), Grenoble (+7%), Le Havre (+9%);

– nine cities experienced increases of between 10% and 30%: Reims (+13%), Nice (+17%), Dijon (+20%), Marseille (+21%), Orleans (+22%), Lille (+24%), Montpellier (+25%), Paris (+27%) and Toulouse (+27%);

– five cities have seen increases of over 30%: Strasbourg (+45%), Nantes (+53%), Lyon (+58%), Bordeaux (+58%), and Rennes (+60%).

Median sale price and change over one year for older homes in the first nine months of 2022 in the urban areas (urban units or metropolitan areas for Paris) of France’s main municipalities: the market for older homes is also on the rise, slightly more pronounced than for apartment buildings.

Price levels:

– Median sales prices reached a new record high in each of the urban areas studied. The price in the Le Havre conurbation broke the €200,000 barrier for the first time. In the Nice agglomeration, the median sale price reached €590,400, an increase of more than €100,000 in the space of two years;

– six agglomerations with a median sale price above €400,000 in 2022, compared to four last year and only two years ago;

– Conversely, six agglomerations with a median sale price below €300,000 in 2022 (Le Havre, Saint-Étienne, Lille, Orléans, Reims, and Dijon) compared to 11 agglomerations five years ago.

Evolution over one year:

– As in the past two years, no price decreases were observed over one year among the urban areas surveyed;

– The most moderate increases were observed in the Paris metropolitan area (+2.1%) and the agglomerations of Bordeaux (+2.9%) and Reims (+3.3%);

– The most significant increases were in the conurbations of Marseille-Aix-en-Provence (+10.6%), Nice (+11.4%), and Strasbourg (+12.0%). The first two had already seen their prices increase by 10% a year ago (+7% for the Strasbourg agglomeration);

– In the rest of the urban areas, the changes are relatively homogeneous and range from +4% to +8%.

Five-year trend: comparison of prices between 2017 and 2022 in the 17 provincial urban areas studied

– No price decreases observed;

– five urban areas with a price increase of less than 25%: Orleans (+17%), Grenoble (+17%), Reims (+21%), Le Havre (+21%), and Toulouse (+21%);

– seven urban areas saw their prices increase by 25% to 35%: Dijon (+25%), Saint-Étienne (+26%), Nice (+27%), Lille (+27%), Marseille – Aix-en-Provence (+28%), Toulon (+28%) and Bordeaux (+31%);

– five cities stand out with trends of over 35%: Strasbourg (+35%), Montpellier (+36%), Nantes (+37%), Rennes (+39%), and Lyon (+39%).

Evolution over 10 years: comparison of prices between 2012 and 2022

– No agglomerations with a decline in median sales price;

– five urban areas with an increase of less than 20%: Le Havre (+13%), Orleans (+17%), Reims (+18%), Grenoble (+20%), and Paris (+20%);

– seven agglomerations saw their prices increase by 20% to 30%: Dijon (+21%), Saint-Étienne (+22%), Toulouse (+23%), Nice (+25%), Toulon (+25%), Montpellier (+29%) and Lille (+29%);

– In the other cities, increases are above 30%: Marseille – Aix-en-Provence (+35%), Strasbourg (+40%), Lyon (+42%), Rennes (+47%), Nantes (+49%), and Bordeaux (+56%).

One year ago, the share of buyers from the Paris region was increasing in most French departments. The situation is different in 2022, with their share stabilizing or decreasing in almost all departments. The largest decreases are mainly observed in the departments bordering or close to Ile-de-France, where the share of buyers from Ile-de-France is higher and where it had increased more strongly one year ago.

At the end of September 2022, the departments of Hautes-Alpes and Corse-du-Sud were the only ones where the share of buyers from abroad was down over one year. The share has remained stable or increased in all other departments in metropolitan France. The strongest increases were mainly observed in the departments where they are historically present. However, these increases should be seen in the context of the declines observed a year earlier in these same departments.

Real estate purchasing power is calculated by dividing the borrowing capacity of households by the average price per square meter of homes sold. The 2022 trend corresponds to the real estate purchasing power calculated over the first nine months of 2022:

– Property prices are average prices per square meter in constant 2019€;

– The monthly loan payment is equal to one-third of the average household disposable income in constant 2019 €. Average household disposable income is taken from the INSEE’s Revenus fiscaux et sociaux (ERFS) survey from 1999 to 2019, then estimated from INSEE’s annual national accounts for the period 1999-2021 and quarterly for 2022;

– The loan is calculated over a 20-year period, without any personal contribution, at a fixed insurance rate of 0.36%;

– The loan rates are the annual averages of the Banque de France’s new housing loan rates for individuals;

Key to understanding: With a budget of €300,000, a buyer can opt for a three-room apartment in Bordeaux or a five-room house in Angers.

In order to get an overview of the profile of homeowners in France over time, this analysis compares household incomes with those needed to purchase an older 80 square meters home.

Since 1999, when real estate purchasing power reached a record high, these homes have not been accessible to “modest” households. Along with “intermediate” households, they have experienced the slowest growth in income, with approximately +4% between 1999 and 2022 (the first nine months of the year).

Conversely, these homes have always been accessible to “well-off” households, with the exception of the 2007-2008 economic crisis, when purchasing power was at its lowest. These households have seen the strongest increase in their incomes with approximately +8% between 1999 and 2022 (first nine months of the year). As for “intermediate” households, these homes, which had become affordable again in 2017, are no longer affordable in 2022.

Based on repayment of 800€/month over 20 years in the main towns of France:

In metropolitan France, based on a repayment of 800€/month over 20 years, the purchasing power for an old apartment in 2022 (first nine months of the year) is 43 square meters, down 2% over one year, or an estimated loss of one square meter. Compared to 2012, it is still up by 14%, or an estimated gain of five square meters;

Over the first nine months of 2022, 11 of the 17 cities surveyed show a higher purchasing power than that recorded in metropolitan France and six cities show a lower purchasing power. It is very close to the national average (between 40 and 47 square meters) in Strasbourg, Toulouse, Rennes, Lille and Nantes, but far from the 71 square meters recorded in Le Havre and the 128 square meters recorded in Saint-Étienne. Lyon, Nice, and Bordeaux are among the cities with the lowest purchasing power, not exceeding 35 square meters.

In all the cities studied, purchasing power is down compared to 2021. While the purchasing power recorded in Saint-Étienne remains the highest, it has suffered the most significant decline with -8%. This decrease is equivalent to that in Orleans, Marseille, and Rennes. While in Saint-Étienne the purchasing power of real estate is up 22% compared to 2012, it is down in the same proportions in Rennes, Bordeaux, and Lyon. Conversely, over the same period, Toulon and Grenoble have seen their real estate purchasing power increase by at least 15%, or by about one additional room.

In metropolitan France, based on a repayment of 1,300 €/month over 20 years, the real estate purchasing power for an old house in 2022 (first nine months of the year) is estimated at 113 square meters. It has fallen much more than in the collective market (-2%), recording a decline of -8% over one year, or an estimated loss of 10 square meters. Since 2012, the purchasing power of single-family homes has increased less strongly than that of apartment buildings, with +3% (compared to +14% for apartment buildings), representing an estimated gain of four square meters.

In the largest urban areas, only Saint-Étienne has a purchasing power higher than the national average with 127 square meters. This result is largely explained by the distribution of house transactions within the region. In the largest urban areas such as Paris, Lyon, Marseille, and Nice, the number of square meters that can be financed with a monthly payment of 1,300 €/month over 20 years does not exceed 65 square meters. On the other hand, it is close to the national average in Orleans and Le Havre.

Like the apartment market, all of the urban areas surveyed are experiencing a decline in real estate purchasing power compared to 2021. It is strongest (greater than or equal to -10%) in the urban areas of Nice (-14%), Marseille (-12%), Strasbourg (-11%), Toulon (-11%), Montpellier (-10%) and Lyon (-10%). Real estate purchasing power has held up better in the agglomerations of Grenoble (-5%), Paris (-6%), and Saint-Etienne (-6%). Compared to 2012, Nice stands out with the largest increase in real estate purchasing power of +20% (an estimated gain of seven square meters.) and Bordeaux with the largest decrease of -21% (an estimated loss of 18 square meters.).

In metropolitan France (excluding Corsica), energy-efficient housing (classes A and B) accounted for 6% of transactions in the third quarter of 2022. Energy-intensive housing (classes F and G) represented 17% of transactions. The share of energy-intensive housing (classes F and G) increased significantly between the third quarter of 2021 and the first half of 2022. In particular, the share of the most energy-intensive housing (class G) rose from 3% in the third quarter of 2021 to 5% in the fourth quarter of 2021 and finally climbed to 7% in the first quarter of 2022, representing a four-point increase in market share. Since then, their share has remained almost stable, between six and 7%. The share of F-class units has also increased, but to a lesser extent, rising from 8% to 10% between the third and fourth quarters of 2021. These increases were primarily at the expense of Class D units, whose share fell from 38% in the third quarter of 2021 to 34% in the first quarter of 2022.

The ban on renting out, from 2023 onwards, a proportion of class G housing (those with primary energy consumption above 450 KWh/m²/year, qualified as indecent in the legislation), announced in 2021, may have accelerated the decision to sell among holders of this type of housing. Recent changes in the rules for calculating the DPE, leading to a redistribution of dwellings within the energy performance scale, make it difficult to interpret changes between 2021 and 2022 in the distribution of transactions according to the energy label. The information available in the Notaires de France real estate database does not make it possible to identify transactions with “new definition” DPEs.

MORE INFO ABOUT NOTAIRES-INSEE INDEXES OF RESALE HOUSING PRICES – THIRD QUARTER 2022:

The series presented are certified by the Official Statistics Authority (ASP). This recognition by the highest statistical authority guarantees users a methodological framework, in compliance with the European Statistics Code of Practice, in the same way as those produced by the official statistical service.

Read the entire report (in French) by downloading the PDF.

A bientôt,