Paris Prices Still on the Rise

Paris property prices are still on the rise. The following text is translation of the Quarterly Report by the Chambre de Notaires de Paris, with corrections, issued today.(The entire document (in French) can be accessed here, or download the pdf here.)  

After strong growth in 2017, the market remained very high in 2018, with 177,500 sales of resale homes in Ile-de-France (-2%). Activity increased by 9% compared to the excellent period between 1999 and 2007 and above all, 23% compared to the average of the last 10 years, where the stages of expansion and recession of the real estate market alternated. With new build, the volume of sales of the dwellings remained high, with a growth of 4% in Ile-de-France from 2017 to 2018.

The second half of 2018 was more dynamic than the first. The slowdown in sales in the first half of 2018 (-7%) followed a small increase in activity of 2% in the second half of the year, compared with the same period in 2017, which is insufficient to fully offset the slowdown in the beginning of the first half of the year.

Once again, the capital lagged behind. More than 36,000 sales were recorded, 5% less than the previous year. At the same time, and contrary to what is observed everywhere else in Ile-de-France, the activity has still not recovered its level between 1999 to 2007. The lack of renewal of supply and the level of prices continues to weigh on the Parisian activity.

If all the market segments remain well oriented, with consistent results, two sectors have slightly outperformed: houses in the Petite Couronne (+ 1% from 2017 to 2018) and apartments in the Grande Couronne where the sales volume is stable.

There is also little change in the volume of housing sold in Ile-de-Franc in 2018: 58m² on average for an apartment and 113m² for a house. At the same time, the sales of apartments remained exactly the same from 2017 to 2018. Fifteen percent of apartment sales were studios, 29% two rooms, 30% three rooms and 26% of four rooms and more. For houses, the share of very large houses has continued to strengthen with 38% of six rooms and more (compared to 37% in 2017 and 34% in 2015).

The annual rise in the price of apartments remains more pronounced in the heart of the the fourth quarter of 2018. In the Capital, price increases were reduced from 8.7% in the fourth quarter of 2017 to 5.7% in the fourth quarter of 2018, with the price per square meter reaching €9,570. The price per square meter increased by 21% or €1,680 in three-and-a-half years in Paris compared to the “low” point of €7,890 recorded in the second quarter of 2015. In the fourth quarter of 2018, the Petite Couronne experienced changes in prices quite similar to the ones we saw in the capital, both for apartments and for houses. On the other hand, the Grande Couronne shows moderate price trends for houses (+2.6%) and more particularly for apartments (+1% from fourth quarter 2017 to fourth quarter 2018).

Would the increase in prices finally be reduced in Paris? This does not seem to be the case in the short term. According to the leading indicators on the notary contracts of the Greater Paris Notaries, the annual increase should slightly accelerate in the Capital in the coming months. In Paris, a record price of over €9,700 per square meter is expected in April 2019, up by around 7% in one year.

Overall, positive factors remain and the first results of the Paris market in January 2019 are well oriented. Mortgage credit rates, still historically low, should remain in the coming months, providing decisive assistance to households. Because at the same time, successive price increases accumulate and weigh on the creditworthiness of buyers, particularly in Paris and Petite Couronne. However, the issue of trust, which plays a decisive role when it comes to debt in the long term, may arise in the coming months for buyers.

The improvement of the job market, which seems structurally established for executives, as well as the improvement in 2019 of the purchasing power of households are favorable factors, still threatened by the risk of a downturn, a crisis or more probably by the structural difficulties of housing. The real estate market remains fragile, constrained by the lack of housing supply responding to solvent demand and high prices, while assistance policies have refocused.

In this context of uncertainties, maintaining the attractiveness of the acquisition and real estate investment, continued effort of new constructions, appears more than ever essential to preserve the fluidity of the market and guarantee to all access to housing.

Foreign Buyers in Ile-FranceIn 2018, less than 1% of former Ile-de-France dwellings and just over 2% of Parisian housing were purchased by foreigners not domiciled in France.

Statistics on foreign buyers can be misleading. If almost 10 buyers of 100 in Ile-de-France are foreigners, nine already reside in France (and indeed mainly in Ile-de-France) while only one lives abroad. One dwelling out of 100 in Ile-de-France is also acquired by one or more French expatriates. These 2% of buyers who reside abroad and are probably looking for a “pied-à-terre” or an investment, have high purchasing power. Non-resident foreigners spent €332,000 for French property in 2018 and French expatriates spent €360,000, compared to a median budget of €264,000 all profiles.

Even with an event like Brexit, non-resident foreigners are too few to be able to significantly influence the overall prices of the market. This may be the case however on certain micro-markets in Paris. The budget of foreigners residing in Ile-de-France is more constrained: €229,000. This phenomenon is found in all Ile-de-France departments.   

Given its attractiveness, Paris non-resident acquisitions are even stronger than in Ile-de-France. In the capital, 2.5% of purchases are made by foreigners who do not reside in France and 4.1% by French expatriates. They devote high budgets to their acquisition of €463,000 and €417,000 respectively.

Foreign buyers who already reside in France are also present (5.6%) in the Capital. They spend €382,000, a budget slightly lower than that spent by the French residents (€410,000). Algerians, Italians, Americans and Chinese were the most represented among non-resident foreign purchasers in the Ile-de-France in 2018. In the capital, among non-resident foreigners, American and Italian purchasers are the most present (12% and 11% respectively), followed by the British (7%) and Germans (6%). The British devote more than €550,000 to their acquisition, while the Italians and Germans spend less than €400,000, and for smaller dwellings.

Be a smart investor. Buy now before prices continue to rise and interest rates are still low!

A bientôt,

Adrian Leeds
Adrian Leeds Group

 

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