Prices Up, Up, Up in Grand Paris and Around the Grand Paris Express

Real estate prices and sales in Paris and the region held up through November of 2019, according to the most recent figures published by the Chambre de Notaires de Paris.

“Grand Paris” Regions of “Grand Paris” The Grand Paris Express Another Bird’s-Eye View of Paris Price Per m2 for Apartments Near The Grand Paris Express Price Evolution Around Transport Stations

Sales volumes are stabilizing at a very high level — 45,170 sales of resale homes in the Ile-de-France region from September to November 2019, but they registered no significant changes with an increase in activity limited to 2 percent in one year and overall results very close for apartments (up 2 percent) and houses (up 1 percent). The level remains very high and the number of sales is 22 percent higher than the 37,170 sales recorded on average over the last 10 years for the same period. In detail, a dynamic November 2019 market offset a slight erosion in activity observed in September and October.

The Paris market, where prices are very high and supply scarce, saw its apartment sales volumes fall by 7 percent compared to the same period in 2018. Activity continued for apartments in the Petite Couronne. The Grande Couronne apartment market, where prices are more affordable, continues to grow, with sales growing by 15 percent when comparing September to November 2019 to September to November 2018. For houses, little change was observed with sales volumes up 2 percent in the Petite Crown and growing by 2 percent in the Grande Couronne.

In the Ile-de-France, from November 2018 to November 2019, prices of resale homes rose by 4 percent. Price growth remained more sustained for apartments (up 5.4 percent) than for houses (up 1.2 percent), and stronger in the heart of the city than in the Grande Couronne. In Paris, the price per square meter of older apartments reached 10,200€ in November 2019, an annual increase of 6.9 percent. The price increase is expected to continue as it accelerates. According to the leading indicators on pre-sale contracts, the price per square meter is expected to be 10,500€ per square meter in March 2020, an annual increase of 8.5 percent.

In the Petite Couronne, in November 2019, the price of apartments increased by 4.8 percent in one year and this movement is expected to increase in early 2020, as everywhere in the Ile-de-France. According to the leading indicators on pre-sale contracts, the annual increase in apartment prices is expected to increase by 5.8 percent in March 2020 over the whole of the Petite Couronne. In the Grande Couronne, apartment prices, which were characterized by their stability, are also rising again. In November 2019, they increased by 2.2 percent in one year and are expected to increase by 4.1 percent from March 2019 to March 2020.

For homes, the annual price increase could rise from 1.2 percent in November 2019 to 3.7 percent in March 2020, according to the leading indicators on the pre-sale contracts of the Notaries of Greater Paris.

FOLLOW TRANSPORTATION TRENDS

The metropolis of Greater Paris is composed of Paris and 11 Territorial Public Establishments comprising a total of 131 municipalities that will host the 69 stations of the Grand Paris Express.

“The Grand Paris Express is a group of new rapid transit lines being built in the Île-de-France region of France. The project comprises four new lines, plus extensions of existing Lines 11 and 14. A total of 200 kilometers (120 miles) of new track and 68 new stations are to be added, serving a projected 2 million passengers a day.” (wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Paris_Express)

According to data from the Notaries of Greater Paris, median prices per square meter have been calculated for apartments sold in 2019 (first 9 months) for each of these public establishments, which comprise between 7 and 24 municipalities. A second price was also calculated for apartments sold within a perimeter of 800 meters in a bird’s-eye view around the stations. It is represented by a point of color at the scale on the map.

From 2,500€ to 10,000€ per square meter: extremely large price differences that reflect the diversity of the territories of the Greater Paris Metropolis.

At the level of each EPT (Etablissements Public Territoriaux), prices naturally formed a very wide range ranging from 2,560€ per square meter northeast of the Seine-Saint-Denis (EPT Paris Terres d’Envol) to 7,380€ per square meter in the Hauts-de-Seine (EPT Grand Paris Seine West). Paris as a whole has exceeded 10,000€ per square meter since the third quarter of 2019. Overall, a median price per square meter of 7,230€ was reached in 2019 for the metropolis of Greater Paris.

If we look at the price around the train stations, we observe very varied prices ranging from 1,640€ per square meter for the Sevran-Beaudottes station (line 16) to 10,530€ per square meter for the Pont Cardinet station (line 14) in the 17th arrondissement of Paris. Apartment prices remain essentially representative of the geographical areas in which they are located.

Thus for the same Métro line and given their scopes (line 15, in particular, will be 75 kilometers long and cover three departments), the difference between prices can be considerable from one station to another. For example, the Bagneux station (next to Arcueil-Cachan) is 4,320€ per square meter when the next station in Châtillon-Montrouge reaches 6,100€ per square meter. Two stations further, to “Issy RER,” has a price of 7,410€ that we observed (72% more expensive than Bagneux). In the same way, the price reaches 10,530€ per square meter at Pont Cardinet and then 6,520€ at the next station of Porte de Clichy.

The bottom line: the best investments are made where transportation lines are the most accessible. With the new Grand Paris Express plan, the scope of the city is really changing!

A bientôt,

Adrian Leeds
Adrian Leeds Group

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