Has France’s Real Estate Market Finally Hit Bottom? A Spring 2025 Snapshot

By Jay Corless, edited by Adrian Leeds

The flowers aren’t the only things blooming this spring in France—the real estate market is, too. Or is it? After three long years of almost uninterrupted decline, the latest figures from the Notaires de France suggest that the worst may be behind us. However, as I like to say, the devil is in the details when it comes to French property, and we’ve quite a few to unpack.

TRANSACTIONS: A SHAKY RECOVERY OR A REAL TURNING POINT?

By the end of February 2025, the number of transactions for existing homes in France reached 803,000 over the past 12 months. That’s up from a low of 777,000 just four months earlier in October 2024, ending a 35.6% drop since the market’s peak in August 2021.

Let’s be clear: we’re not yet back to pre-pandemic highs (which peaked at 1.2 million in 2021), but we’re seeing a clear shift toward stability. The annual drop in sales is now just -3.6% compared to a whopping -23.4% a year ago.

Are we officially on the rebound? We might be. However, whether this recovery sticks depends on more than seasonal sunshine. Buyers are slowly returning, spurred by lower rates and more favorable lending terms, but confidence remains tentative. Many sellers are still adjusting their expectations, and that tug-of-war could define the months ahead.

PRICES: STABILIZATION OR JUST A PAUSE?

Prices across France have softened—but there’s nuance here. Nationwide, home prices dropped 2.1% over the past year (Q4 2023 to Q4 2024), with houses slipping more than apartments. But the quarterly trend is nearly flat: a tiny +0.1% increase for two quarters in a row. The notaries project a modest annual price growth of +0.4% by May 2025, signaling a period of mild recovery.

In the Île-de-France region, prices are falling at a slower rate: -3.6% over the year. Houses in the suburbs took the biggest hit, down 5%, while Paris apartments dropped by 3%. Still, the average price per square meter in Paris hovers around €9,470—a slight dip, but hardly a fire sale.

This is a potential sweet spot for buyers: prices have come down, but interest is returning. For sellers, it may finally be time to re-enter the market with realistic expectations. Regional variations remain essential to monitor—cities like Metz and Caen are experiencing price increases, while Bordeaux and Lyon continue to decline. Understanding micro-markets like Nice is more crucial than ever.

A NEW MORTGAGE LANDSCAPE: OPPORTUNITY KNOCKS

If you’re considering financing your French dream home, the lending climate is friendlier than in months. As of February 2025, mortgage issuance had jumped 55% year over year. Interest rates dropped again to 3.27%, nearing mid-2023 levels.

The European Central Bank has lowered rates seven times since June 2024 to tame inflation and revive investment. Now is an opportune moment for buyers to lock in relatively low rates before the pendulum swings again.

More importantly, borrowing conditions are loosening up thanks to better flexibility margins under HCSF rules. Banks are cautiously optimistic, and their renewed appetite for lending could significantly boost younger or first-time buyers, who were previously frozen out.

GREEN LABELS, RED FLAGS: ENERGY PERFORMANCE TAKES CENTER STAGE

Don’t forget about the energy performance ratings. Since reforms began in 2021, particularly since July 2024, energy-hungry properties (rated F or G) are being gradually phased out of the rental market. These properties represented 15% of sales in 2024, down from 20% in 2023.

In Paris, however, the share of sales for energy-inefficient homes stayed at 31%. At the same time, it rose to 21% in the inner suburbs. Buyers beware: These homes may seem affordable, but they could end up costing you more in renovation and regulatory compliance.

Conversely, energy-efficient homes with A or B ratings continue to command a premium, especially in competitive urban markets. For savvy investors, targeting properties that can be upgraded to higher performance categories might offer strong future returns and long-term compliance benefits.

THE BOTTOM LINE: SPRING CLEANING OR NEW GROWTH?

If you’re waiting for the bottom of the market, you might be looking at it now. The steep drop in sales and prices appears behind us, replaced by a new phase of cautious optimism. But, this isn’t a free-for-all; buyers still face regulatory hurdles, and sellers must price appropriately to spark interest.

With interest rates dipping and the energy rules shaking up inventory, this spring may mark the return of a more balanced real estate market in France. If you’ve been sitting on the sidelines, now might be the moment to step onto the playing field.

That said, macroeconomic uncertainties—like global inflation and shifting trade policies—could still cloud the horizon. Stay vigilant, do your research, and don’t hesitate to act when the timing feels right. Stay tuned, stay smart, and stay ready. You never know when your dream pied-à-terre will bloom into reality.

Read the report published by the Notaires de France in its entirety (in French).

A bientôt,