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Paris is Down, Opportunity Looking Up

Volume XXII, Issue 18

View of the Eiffel Tower over the rooftops of Paris

Sold in the Paris region between December 2023 and February 2024 were 27,210 homes, down 28% from the already downward trend recorded a year earlier (December 2022 to February 2023), according to the report by the Chambre de Notaires de Paris April 25th.

At the same time, the decline in activity remains slightly more moderate in Paris than elsewhere (-23%). On the other hand, sales volumes for apartments fell by 31% in the Petite and Grande Couronnes. For houses, the downturn is slightly more marked, with sales down 25% in the Petite Couronne and 29% in the Grande Couronne.

The wait-and-see attitude has thus continued, with historically low activity and a number of sales 30% lower than the average for the last 10 years. The housing market is still more affected (-36%) than the apartment market (-27%) compared to this reference period.

The few positive signs that are beginning to emerge—monthly payments that have stopped rising—are still too tenuous and, above all, too recent to change the trend in sales. According to preliminary contracts, the decline in sales volumes could continue over the next few months at a slightly slower pace than at present.

Between February 2023 and February 2024, house prices in the Paris region fell by 8.7% (-8% for apartments and -10% for houses). It’s been 14 years since we’ve seen a double-digit annual fall in house prices in the Paris region.

The downward trend was strong in the three months from November 2023 to February 2024, with prices falling by 3.6% for apartments (-2.6% after seasonal adjustment) and by 5.7% for houses (and by a further -4.2% after seasonal adjustment).

According to preliminary contracts, prices could then vary less between now and June. The graphs clearly show a certain flattening of the curves for quite a number of market segments, and relatively stable or less bearish price trends for several months. These trends naturally need to be confirmed.

As a result, the annual fall in prices could gradually moderate between now and June, while remaining high in view of previous declines.

Paris should remain unaffected by this trend, with the price per square meter of resale apartments falling from €9,600 in February 2024 (-7.3% in one year) to €9,360 in June 2024 (-7.6%). In Ile-de-France over a one-year period, from June 2023 to June 2024, apartment prices could fall by 7.3% (compared to an annual decline of 8.7% in February). Prices are expected to fall by 7.5% in the Petite Couronne and 6.1% in the Grande Couronne. House prices are expected to fall by 7.7% between June 2023 and June 2024 (10% annual decline in February), -9.6% in the Petite Couronne and -6.7% in the Grande Couronne.

What’s the bottom line? Now’s the time to buy in Paris!

To read the report in its entirety, click here.

A bientôt,

Adrian LeedsAdrian Leeds
The Adrian Leeds Group®

P.S. We can help you find and purchase you any property of your dreams anywhere in France…to rent or buy! Do not hesitate to contact us for an initial consultation to help you decide where and what! Visit our website for more information


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