The Paris Market is Still Sluggish, But Stabilizing! Foreign Buyers are the Reason!

The real estate market continues to adjust in a highly constrained environment, with more expensive and less accessible financing putting a strain on buyers’ solvency, according to the latest report from the Chambre des Notaires de Paris.

Only 31,440 existing homes were sold in the Paris region between August and October 2023, down 14,600 (-32%) from the 46,020 sold between August and October 2022. The drop in sales volumes remains less severe for apartments (-22%) than for houses (-34%), which were highly sought-after after the health crisis.

Compared with the average for the last 10 years, the downturn is confirmed (-26%). From a historical perspective, this leaves a low level of activity. However, from last October onwards, the decline in sales volumes seems to have stopped intensifying, dropping from a year-over-year monthly decline of 33% in August and September to 29% in October, whereas the trend for almost a year had been for an ever steeper decline.

In the capital, sales volume is still down slightly less than in the region’s other departments, but it is still down by 27% when comparing the months of August to October 2023 with the same period in 2022.

Over the same period and in the different departments of Ile-de-France, the fall in sales volumes, still widespread, range from -27 to -37% for apartments and from -30 to -40% for houses. The eastern part of the Paris region, in both Seine-et-Marne and Val-de-Marne, is experiencing the sharpest falls in activity.

The deterioration in activity continues to impact prices. In Ile-de-France, from October 2022 to October 2023, house prices fell by 6.3%, for both apartments and houses. Prices in Paris also fell by 6.3% in one year, to €9,940 per square meter in October 2023, the first time since August 2019 that prices have fallen below the symbolic €10,000/square meter mark.

The fall in prices is set to continue early next year, as sales volumes remain very low. According to pre-contract prices, apartment prices in Paris should reach €9,630 per square meter in February 2024, representing a quarterly fall of 2.5% and a year-on-year decline of 7%. In Ile-de-France, apartment prices are expected to fall by 3.2% over three months, with a very marked 4.4% drop in the Petite Couronne and 2.8% in the Grande Couronne. By February 2024, the annual fall in apartment prices could be 7% in Paris, 8.7% in the Petite Couronne and 6.4% in the Grande Couronne. In one year, from February 2023 to February 2024, house prices should fall by 6.9% (-7.5% in Petite Couronne, -6.7% in Grande Couronne).

A few high-profile transactions often draw attention to the influence of foreigners on the real estate market. Statistical analysis reveals a more nuanced reality.

The shockwave of rising interest rates and difficulties accessing credit have constrained buyers and weighed on demand. Sales volumes of existing homes in the first nine months of 2023 were down by 25% (or almost 37,000 units) compared to the first nine months of 2022. However, trends differ according to the profile of purchasers, whether foreign or French, living in France or elsewhere, thus modifying their respective weighting in total sales.

Accounting for 11.2% of sales in the first nine months of 2023, foreign buyers have never been proportionally so numerous in the Paris Region. They accounted for only 10% of sales during the same period in 2022.

Two phenomena explain the growing share of foreigners in total sales. Firstly, the number of foreign buyers living abroad has increased by 6% when comparing the first nine months of 2022 (1,180 sales) to the first nine months of 2023 (1,250 sales). These buyers represent 1.1% of sales in 2023, compared with 0.8% in 2022.

It is therefore not the increase, but the simple maintenance of the number of acquisitions by non-resident foreigners, in a context of an overall decline in the number of transactions, that is driving this rise in their proportion.

The good performance of this micro-market, which runs counter to the general economic climate, can be attributed to several factors: very high purchasing power for a clientele that often buys a pied-à-terre, and above all, buyers who can do so without a mortgage.

Secondly, acquisitions by foreigners living in France fell by 18% between the first nine months of 2022 and 2023. This is a sharp decline, but less marked than for the market as a whole (-25%). As a result, the proportion of purchases by foreigners resident in France increases very slightly from 2022 to 2023, rising from 9.2% to 10% of total sales.

These two trends together explain the overall increase in the share of foreign buyers in total sales. At the same time, the share of French residents in France is tending to shrink, with sales falling by 26% from the first nine months of 2022 to the first nine months of 2023. They now represent 87.4% of buyers, compared with 88.7% in 2022. Historically, this share had reached 89% to 90%.

The resilience of the micro-market for foreign buyers residing abroad can be seen throughout the Paris region. In Paris, the number of purchases by non-resident foreigners rose very slightly (+4%), with 970 sales in nine months (a record level). In the Petite Couronne, the number of non-resident foreign buyers rose by 13% to 210. Lastly, in the Grande Couronne, the 10% increase has no real significance given the sales volume of around 130 units across the 4 departments.

Note: These statistics related to foreign buyers has been calculated over the first nine months of the year.

Our clientele are part of this larger group of foreign buyers, which are fueling the burgeoning Ile-de-France real estate market. I suspect this will continue to grow as there is more and more interest in North Americans moving to France.

You can read the report in its entirety. (In French)

Now is a perfect time in invest in Paris! We can certainly help you make that happen. Contact us now for more information.

A bientôt,